Texas has long been one of the fastest-growing states in the nation, but that expansion has never been evenly distributed. Some areas are booming, while others are working to stabilize existing conditions. I recently discussed our analysis of regional economic patterns across the state based on a granular examination of county-level data. Using the same information, let's briefly explore where the most rapid growth is likely to occur over the next two decades and why.
We used projections through 2045 from our models which we developed and have maintained for almost five decades. Statewide, we expect the population to climb to more than 40 million by 2045, with wage and salary employment expanding by more than five million jobs over the period (a topic for another day).
Growth will become increasingly concentrated in and around the largest metropolitan areas, particularly along the I-35 corridor and in greater Houston. North Central Texas (anchored by Dallas-Fort Worth) is projected to add almost 2.1 million jobs through 2045, followed by the Houston-Galveston area with 1.1 million. Austin and the surrounding area is expected to see the fastest pace of growth, with employment rising 2.27% per year and real gross product more than doubling. Overall, the four largest regions (including the San Antonio area) are projected to account for 76% of Texas output in 2045, up from 74% today.
Several forces are behind these patterns. Suburban counties in growth corridors will continue to thrive as metropolitan areas expand outward and people move to the suburbs while commuting to jobs in the urban core. Population gains, in turn, drive increased demand for consumer-oriented businesses, housing, retail, and various services. In fact, many counties near the urban centers have now developed their own independent base and attract workers from an ever-broadening geography.
Over the next 20 years, professional, scientific, and technical services are projected to add more than 329,100 jobs in North Central Texas and 191,100 in the greater Austin area. Finance, health care, and logistics are also notable sources of expansion in the major metros, while the Permian Basin will continue to benefit from robust oil and gas activity (though the energy sector is highly volatile and impacted by myriad global factors).
Even with the positive outlook for many parts of the state, there are notable challenges to address. Some regions will see only modest gains (Deep East Texas, for example, is projected to grow at 0.48% per year), while others must manage rapid expansion. Labor availability and infrastructure needs, including water, transportation, and housing, will determine how fully this potential is realized, with education being the most critical factor. Careful, coordinated planning at both the regional and statewide levels is essential. Stay safe!
Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by Dr. M. Ray Perryman, president and chief executive officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com). The Perryman Group has served the needs of over 3,000 clients over the past four decades. The above column appears in The Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Perryman can be reached by email via: shelia@perrymangroup.com.
