WESLACO, Texas — Warning that the Rio Grande Valley risks losing millions in critical federal dollars without accurate population counts, Texas Demographic Center officials are urging local governments to gear up for the upcoming decennial census.
Speaking before the Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council’s board of directors, Dr. Monica Cruz emphasized that addressing historic undercounts starts with aggressive local participation in the upcoming Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program.
"If we don't have good population data, then we could potentially not get the funding that really is deserved at the local level," Cruz told regional leaders during the Sept. 30 meeting.
Cruz highlighted a recent study by the Project on Government Oversight showing that Texas pulled in more than $152 billion in census-guided federal assistance in a single year. Those funds directly support healthcare, transportation, and vital infrastructure across local communities.
However, getting every resident counted remains an uphill battle. Following the 2020 decennial census, the U.S. Census Bureau determined that Texas was one of six states suffering a significant state-level undercount of approximately 500,000 people. While the bureau does not conduct sub-state undercount analyses, rapidly growing regions like the Valley historically face heightened risks of undercounting due to fast-paced growth and unincorporated colonias.
Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council Executive Director Manuel Cruz echoed these concerns in his opening remarks, urging local leaders to stay ahead of the curve.
"We just want to make sure we get ahead of the game and be proactive... to make sure that we get those numbers up for the Rio Grande Valley and increase our hopefully allocations of funding for every type of services that we provide," Manuel Cruz said.
To prevent future shortfalls, the Census Bureau is preparing to launch LUCA in 2027. LUCA is a voluntary, once-a-decade opportunity for local governments to review and update the bureau's residential address list before the 2030 Census.
Participation in Texas has historically lagged. Cruz noted that prior to the 2020 census, only about 20% of local governmental entities in Texas participated in LUCA.
Local engagement can yield dramatic results. Pointing to a case study in Hidalgo County, Cruz highlighted how community organizations and local planners collaborated ahead of the 2020 census to cross-reference 911 address gaps with parcel data. In a small sample area like Pueblo de las Palmas, the county added 199 new addresses to the file—over 70% of which were ultimately included in the census enumeration.
Local leaders should prepare for the rollout of LUCA using the following key timeline milestones:
Cruz encouraged Valley leadership to ensure that notification emails do not slip through the cracks when outreach begins next spring.
Concluding her remarks, Cruz announced that the Texas Demographic Center plans to take its annual data users conference on the road, bringing the event to the Rio Grande Valley next May to help local stakeholders examine demographic trends and community needs.
