U.S. President Donald Trump is in trouble at home and abroad. His sinking popularity, the lowest for a sitting president at midterms since Harry Truman - due to inflation, fuel prices, and the cost of living- is giving Republicans a headache.
In fact, the approval ratings for Trump have fallen since he began his second term, when his approval rating was around 50% whereas today is 37% or probably less.
International events may not be in the spot for American voters but still matter. After the victories of center right, right and extreme-right candidates in Latin American elections, Brazil brought that trend to a stop, even with Trump openly supporting Flavio Bolsonaro’s candidacy for presidency. Something similar happened in Serbia where a Trump’s ally, Aleksandar Vucic lost to the Students List after two years of protests on corruption and poor-quality education, among other demands. This somehow replicates the fall of Viktor Orban in Hungary last April, another ally of Trump. In addition to this, Benjamin Netanyahu won the elections in Israel but lacks enough votes to govern the country. And these failures somehow impact the international stature of Trump.
In the US, a poll released by Gallup last October 29, indicates that for Republicans and Republican supporters the economy, healthcare and the situation in Iran lead in importance in this year’s election, among 11 issues rated. Half of registered voters say the economy and healthcare are extremely important to their vote, and 47% say the same about Iran. Roughly four in 10 rate income and wealth distribution (44%), gas prices (42%), immigration (40%) and abortion (38%) as extremely important.
As is often the case for the party out of power, Democrats and Democratic voters are much more likely than Republican voters to rate most issues tested as extremely important to their vote in this year's midterms. The only exceptions are immigration, which receives similar ratings from both groups, and crime, which earns a higher importance score from Republicans.
Healthcare (68%) and the distribution of income and wealth (65%) are top Democrats' list of voting priorities this year, followed by the economy (59%) and the situation in Iran (58%). At least half of Democrats also rate gas prices (53%), climate change (52%) and abortion (51%) as extremely important. At 32%, crime is their lowest priority. But frankly, at the end of the day, both Republicans and Democrats agree that “it’s the economy, stupid!”
What is really at stake at the US midterms? Americans voting in the midterm elections will decide control of the US House and Senate for the next two years. In addition to that, this election will take place in 36 states and three territories. At this time, there are 26 Republican and 24 Democratic governors in the US. With 19 incumbents leaving office, there will be a lot of turnovers.
Voters in at least 12 states face tight races for governor. Republicans have the opportunity to flip five governorships, while Democrats can flip as many as seven. Why? Donald Trump’s lagging poll numbers are helping Democrats to compete, even in historically Republicans-dominated states. In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton — the former state health director — is looking to break a 15-year drought for Democrats by facing off against Republican tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. In Georgia, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, is running against Republican healthcare executive Rick Jackson. Republicans have held a trifecta of control in Georgia for more than two decades. It is not a secret that in the US people vote straight ticket, meaning that because of their dislike for Donald Trump, they may be going to be doing it all the way down the ballot with Democrats. Same applies when there is dissatisfaction with Democrats and then the support goes to Republicans, as seen in 2024.
That said, how bad could elections may be for Republicans today? Well, they know there is anger on Trump’s policies, the cost of living and the war in Iran and it is expected that young voters who supported Trump two years ago, may stay at home and will skip the polls, due to disillusionment. Some Republicans, according to Politico, claim they need more resources for their campaigns to the point that polls are being avoided since resources are very limited. The table is set for a bad night.
Beyond that, if Democrats make a clean sweep of both legislative chambers, then a classic case of domestic policy gridlock between the presidency and Congress would follow for the remaining two years of Donald Trump's final term. It could be said that because Trump tends to impose his will on the other branches of government it makes no sense to look at who will win and lose the legislative chambers. Yet it is reasonable to believe some changes will occur at Trump’s cabinet, or not?
It could be argued that the changes that Trump made in his cabinet during 2026, some of them after a couple of days in their new posts - such as Katie Zacharia, named executive officer of the President of the United States on October 12, and being dismissed on October 16 following public scrutiny regarding her legal credentials and due to her poor performance in her sole press briefing-, had to do with the need to do it soon in case the Chamber or/and the Senate turn blue. This means changes in Capitol Hill would make more difficult for Trump to have the approval for specific positions, policies, and such.
Yet another consequence could be that Trump may push harder to change voting rules for 2028. Readers may remember that President Donald Trump fired all three remaining members of the US Election Assistance Commission on July 10, 2026, abruptly – by email- disabling the only federal agency devoted solely to election administration at a moment when Trump knew his popularity was rapidly sinking.
The firings leave the four-member commission with no commissioners, meaning it cannot take official action until new members are installed. They also come days after the Supreme Court granted the President power to fire leaders of independent agencies, weakening a legal framework that for decades had insulated bipartisan federal commissions from direct White House control. This is bad news, right? And this probably anticipates a worst-case scenario for the forthcoming presidential elections. Democracy is having a hard time in the country that taught the world it was the best system of government. Or so it was.
Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by María Cristina Rosas, a professor and researcher in the faculty of political and social sciences at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. The column appears in The Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Rosas can be reached via email at: mcrosas@prodigy.net.mx
